Caroline is excited about her wedding this sunday. she strongly believes that she and ray will be happy for the rest of their lives. but she also realizes that many marriages end in divorce and that she really cannot predict what will happen. she is trying to avoid what error in thinking?

She is trying to avoid "overconfidence" error in thinking.

The overconfidence effect is watched when individuals' subjective trust in their own particular capacity is more prominent than their goal (real) execution. It is much of the time estimated by having test members answer general information test questions. They are then requested to rate how sure they are in their answers on a scale. Overconfidence is estimated by ascertaining the score for a man's normal certainty rating in respect to the real extent of inquiries addressed accurately.