A firm is weighing three capacity alternatives: small, medium, and large job shop. Whatever capacity choice is made, the market for the firm's product can be "moderate" or "strong." The probability of moderate acceptance is estimated to be 40 percent; strong acceptance has a probability of 60 percent. The payoffs are as follows. Small job shop, moderate market = $24,000; Small job shop, strong market = $54,000. Medium job shop, moderate market = $20,000; medium job shop, strong market = $64,000. Large job shop, moderate market = - $2,000; large job shop, strong market = $96,000. Which capacity choice should the firm make?

Since expected payoff for large job shop option is highest, firm should make large job shop option as capacity choice

Explanation:

Expected payoff of any capacity alternative

= Probability of moderate acceptance x Payoff of moderate acceptance + Probability of strong acceptance x Payoff of strong acceptance

= 0.40 x Payoff of moderate acceptance + 0.60 x Pay off of strong acceptance

Thus Pay off for small job shop option

= 0.40 x 24000 + 0.6 x 54000

= 9600 + 32400

= $42,000

Pay off for medium job shop option

= 0.40 x 20000 + 0.60 x 64000

= 8000 + 38400

= $ 46,400

Pay off for large job shop option

= - 0.40 x 2000 + 0.60 x 96000

= - 800 + 57600

= $56,800