Alf Landon to win the 1936 presidential election over Franklin D. Roosevelt. What is believed to be the primary source of their error?

The 1936 US presidential election was held on November 3 during the Great Depression and on the eve of World War II. Democratic President Franklin Roosevelt still promoted his New Deal policy through Congress and the courts. However, he has already introduced a social security system and unemployment benefits, which have become very popular. The Republican candidate was a moderate politician, Kansas Governor Alfred Landon, who, aas the core of his election program, demanded that the social insurance program be canceled. For the first time since the 1850s, when a bipartisan system was established in US politics, Roosevelt won the election with an overwhelming advantage, receiving 523 votes of 531 electors.

Literary Digest magazine conducted public opinion polls before the presidential elections in 1920, 1924, 1928 and 1932, as well as in 1936, and each time the forecast based on the survey turned out to be correct.

A survey conducted by the magazine in 1936 showed that a Republican candidate, Alfred Landon, is likely to win in most states and become the new president. This seemed quite possible, since shortly before the presidential election, Republicans won in several states in the election of governors and congressmen.

However, according to the election results, Landon received electoral votes from only 2 US states, while in 46 states they Roosevelt was preferred. Landon's electoral rating turned out to be minimal during the confrontation between the Democratic and Republican parties. The election results, due to radically inaccurate polls, led to the fact that soon, in 1938, the Literary Digest was closed.