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Jason inherited a piece of land from his great-uncle. Owners in the area claim that there is a 45% chance that the land has oil. Jason decides to test the land for oil. He buys a kit that claims to have an 80% accuracy rate of indicating oil in the soil. What is the probability that the land has oil and the test predicts it? Show solution.

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  1. 14 May, 19:47
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    P (A) = 0.45 - probability that the land has oil,

    P (B) = 0.8 - probability that the test predicts it

    P (A ∩ B) = P (A) · P (B) = 0.45 · 0.8 = 0.36

    Answer: The probability that the land has oil and the test predicts it is 36 %.
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