1. State whether the following is a classical or Bayesian (subjective) probability, and explain why (1 pt for correct id and 1 pt for explanation) : a. The chance of getting a 5 on a fair 6-sided die is 1/6. b. The chance that the shelter-at-home restrictions in the SF Bay Area will be lifted by May 3 is 50%. c. There is a 95% chance of an additional major correction (drop of 20% or more) in the stock market in the next 2 months. d. The chance a baby will be born male is 51%. (Hint: this). e. If you flip a fair coin many times, about 50% of the time you will have gotten heads.

Question

Lina Trujillo

Mathematics

16 July, 02:18

1. State whether the following is a classical or Bayesian (subjective) probability, and explain why (1 pt for correct id and 1 pt for explanation) : a. The chance of getting a 5 on a fair 6-sided die is 1/6. b. The chance that the shelter-at-home restrictions in the SF Bay Area will be lifted by May 3 is 50%. c. There is a 95% chance of an additional major correction (drop of 20% or more) in the stock market in the next 2 months. d. The chance a baby will be born male is 51%. (Hint: this). e. If you flip a fair coin many times, about 50% of the time you will have gotten heads.

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Answers (1)

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Zack Friedman · Answer 1

a. Classical Probability.

b. Classical Probability.

c. Bayesian Probability

d. Bayesian Probability.

e. Classical Probability.

Explanation:

In classical probability, each event has an equal likelihood of occurring.

However, Bayesian probability is a probability based on belief or a state of knowledge.

a. The chance of getting a 5 on a fair 6-sided die is 1/6.

This is a Classical Probability. There are 6 sides and getting each side has an equal probability of 1/6.

b. The chance that the shelter-at-home restrictions in the SF Bay Area will be lifted by May 3 is 50%.

This is also a Classical Probability. The are two possible occurrences, either it will be lifted or not and each has an equal probability of 50%.

c. There is a 95% chance of an additional major correction (drop of 20% or more) in the stock market in the next 2 months.

This is an example of Bayesian Probability as it is based on the belief of the speaker probably from his/her analysis of the trend in the stock market.

d. The chance a baby will be born male is 51%.

This is an example of Bayesain Probability. Each gender is supposed to have an equal chance of 50%.

e. If you flip a fair coin many times, about 50% of the time you will have gotten heads.

In a fair coin, the Probability of getting a head or a tail is equal. Since the probability given is 50%, it is a Classical Probability.