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9 January, 13:16

Marge correctly guessed whether a fair coin turned up "heads" or "tails" on sic consecutive flips. What is the probability that she will correctly guess the outcome of the next coin toss?

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  1. 9 January, 13:40
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    The probability of guessing a coin flip outcome is 0.5 (50%) and it is independent of the outcome of the previous flips:

    P (guessing the 7th flip, after six consecutive flips) = 0.5

    Also, we can use the compound probability, which can be found by simply multiplying the probabilities of each event:

    P (guessing 7 in a row) = 0.5 * 0.5 * 0.5 * 0.5 * 0.5 * 0.5 * 0.5

    = (0.5) ⁷

    = 0.0078

    Hence, the probability that Marge correctly guesses the 7th flip is still 50%, but in general, the probability of guessing 7 consecutive flips is 0.78%.
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